Forex Basics: An Exchange Rates Tutorial

Profits are gained and lost on the foreign exchange, or 'Forex', market due to fluctuations in the exchange rate. This fact may seem like common knowledge, but one should not take for granted how exchange rates are determined.

There is actually a very rich history behind the concept of the exchange rate, and it is important that you understand why things came to be as they are -- as well as how to capitalize on that knowledge.

This quick tutorial on exchange rates will help you do just that.

First, let us look at the simplest definition of an exchange rate. An exchange rate is the value of one currency in relation to another. If one U.S. dollar is worth $1.20 Canadian, then the exchange rate is 1:1.2, or 1.2 for the CAD/USD currency pair.

What does this really mean, though? Why is it that one currency can be worth more than another, and who decides?

If you look back to the earlier part of the 20th Century, you'll recall that most currencies of the world were back by precious metals, like silver and gold.

It used to be that the United States followed the 'gold standard', which 'pegged' the Dollar to the price of 1 ounce of gold. All other currencies were then 'pegged' to the Dollar and allowed to fluctuate in either direction by a margin of no more than 1 percent.

This type of exchange rate, although it allowed for minor fluctuation, was considered a "fixed exchange rate".

Now, fast-forward to the latter half of the century, and you find that the 'gold standard' has been dropped, along with the fixed rate model of exchange. Instead, the foreign exchange market now operates primarily on a 'fluctuating exchange rate'.

Fluctuating exchange rates are governed by the market forces of supply and demand. If the demand for a currency exceeds the supply, then the exchange rate (and value) of that currency will rise.

Likewise, if the supply of a currency exceeds market demand, then the value of that currency (and its exchange rate) will drop.

We see this happening today with the U.S. Dollar. In order to keep up with government spending, the federal reserve prints more and more dollars, then sells them to other countries as 'debt'.



The market forces which previously gave the dollar its strength -- such as oil exports and oil transaction denominated in U.S. dollars - have eroded. Thus, we not only find the exchange rate of the dollar weakened, but also the exchange rates of many of our closest trading partners.

The Japanse Yen, for example, has fallen even more than the dollar. Part of this is due an overall crash in the Asian market, but it is also linked to the fact that much of Japan's economic growth at the end of the last century depended upon exports to the United States.

This is just one example of how market forces affect exchange rates, but it is a useful one for examining some of the factors involved in rate fluctuations.

If you would like a real world exchange rate tutorial, I recommend opening a demo trading account with an online broker. Do some test trades to get a feel for things, and make note of current exchange rates.

Then, make sure you stay abreast of world and financial news, and see if you can spot the relationships between major announcements and rate fluctuations!

Learn Currency Trading - 5 Common Deadly Mistakes

If you want to learn currency trading you need to get the right forex education and avoid the mistakes of the losing majority. The mistakes below are common ones but there easy to avoid and you must do so if you want to enjoy currency trading success.

1. Following a Vendor Blindly 

One of the most common errors is to think someone else can give you success - they can't.

Most systems sold are junk - but even if you do find a good one, how can you follow it with discipline if you don't know how it works?

You cant to have discipline to follow a system you must have confidence in it so you need to take the time to develop your own trading system or have total confidence in someone else's logic.

2. Trading News Stories 

We have more news at our disposal than ever before and all those stories are very convincing - but that's all they are stories. The news reflects the greed and fear of the crowd and they lose longer term - try and trade news stories and you are guaranteed to lose as well.

The best way for any novice to trade is to simply follow the reality of price action on a forex chart and trade it - your trading the truth not an opinion and that is the only way to win.

3. Day Trading

Simply the dumbest way to trade.

It doesn't work as all short term volatility is random and you can't get the odds in your favour.

Don't believe me?

Try and find a forex day trader with a real ( not simulated ) track record that's made real dollars over the long term. Let me know if you find one I have been searching for 25 years and still not found one!

Avoid day trading at all costs!

4. Trying to Predict Forex Prices 

If you try and predict prices in advance you're hoping or guessing and that won't get you anywhere in life and certainly not forex trading.

You must not predict wait for momentum to confirm a turn and you can look up how to do this in our other articles - it is essential to confirm a price turn, rather than simply guess when it might come.

5. Markets are Scientific 

It's amazing how many people buy into this myth yet it's obviously not true.

Why?

Because if prices did move to a scientific theory, there would be no market, as we would all know the price beforehand and there would be no market. The reason a market moves is because we all have different opinions of where the price may go.

The far out investment crowd love scientific theories and like to follow the works and methods of gurus such as:

Gann, Elliot and Fibonacci.

Well they made no money with their theories in forex trading and neither will you.

So if you want to learn currency trading correctly avoid the common mistakes enlcosed and work and getting a simple forex trading system which will help you trade the odds, you can understand and can apply with discipline.

If you learn currency trading the correct way ( and 95% of traders don't ), then you can enjoy currency trading success and create a life changing income - good luck!

On Making Risk Less Risky

Bearing in mind, that risk itself is similar to taking a journey towards a target you are not sure to reach safely, it is fair to assume that the less knowledge we have about a particular thing we wish to engage in, the greater the uncertainty we will face.

To get the odds in our favour to reach our goal successfully, we need to study the following four points first.

1.What could be a possible cause of derailment of our proposed investment. 2.What are the things that could stand in the way of reaching a successful outcome. 3.What are the valid arguments for, and against, the probability of success or failure. 4.What is the extent of our awareness of the risk we are taking, or are we making a decision under partial ignorance.

Applying these tests before making a decision is important. Since it not easy to know the answers to all the questions, many people do not bother and tend to be guided by their intuition.

To play the forex market by intuition, to back horses by intuition, to play in casinos by intuition, all this of course, is a formula for disaster.

If the more information we have about what we need to know provides a greater chance of success, then we must make it our business to get it. Knowledge and information, are the odds you need in your favour. Whatever the investment, it is not prudent to make a decision under ignorance. If you cannot accumulate enough information about the investment you want to make, stay away from that deal and wait for another.

Of course, there are different types of investments, and therefore information and knowledge has to be pertinent to the particular investment.

If we are talking about horses racing, we would need to know about the state of the going, meaning does the horse like soft ground, or hard ground, does it run better on a left hand turn track or a right hand turn track, what distance is it best at, what draw has it got, who is the jockey, what opposition is it running against etc.

When we are talking about a football game, there are equally a series of questions that have to be answered. Are all the star players in the team, are they playing at home, against whom are they playing, and so forth.

Playing the markets is a game based on a great deal of skill, but sometimes there are certain conditions which demand extreme caution, because any amount of skill can be derailed by events not always available for consideration in good time.

Currency markets are vulnerable to a large number of factors which must be taken into account, especially when volatile conditions are present.

One can either study the particular field, or be guided by experts and consultants who like some doctors, can be good, or extra good, but it is still better to take their advice than to do it alone. Of course if you only have a small cold, there is probably no need for a doctor. In the case of a major illness, you turn to the doctor. By the same ruling, if you invest very small money, you tend to use your own brains, but when playing in hundreds of thousands, it is prudent to seek the best help one can get, or certainly gather a great deal of knowledge and information before making a move.

By careful process in gathering as many odds in your favour before firing, you will find that things will turn out more profitable, and certainly less risky.

Precaution is an enemy of risk. Everybody knows that it is wise to take precaution, but not all take it. The few that do all they can, are wealthier and healthier, than the many who tend not to bother.

Forex Education - A Lesson from History for Forex Success

Here we are going to look at the story of "the turtles". If you don't know who they were, then you should study this group of traders, as learned to trade in just 14 days and made $100 million, in just 4 years! There is much to learn and it's an inspiring story, so let's look at it.

The story begins in 1983, when trading legend Richard Dennis decided to prove that anyone could be a trader, if they had the right mindset, the right education and the right trading system.

He picked a group of people who had never traded before.

This group consisted of both sexes, various ages and various levels of academic achievement and variety of occupations from a security guard to a boy fresh from school.

He then set about teaching them to trade in 14 days.

He set them up with trading accounts and the results were astounding:

This group of traders went on to make $100 million in four years and many went on to become trading legends.

So what can you learn from the experiment?

The first lesson is, anyone has the potential to be a successful trader and every thing about currency trading can be learned.

Secondly, if you have the right forex education you can do it quickly, 14 days is not a long time to learn any trade!

Hang on! - You maybe saying:

If everyone can learn to trade, why do 95% of forex traders wipe out their accounts?

When Dennis taught the turtles, he used a simple method - but he rammed home two:

1. You need to have mental discipline to follow any system because if you don't, you have no method at all. He made sure that the traders knew exactly how and why the system worked, to give them the confidence and discipline to follow it.

Most traders simply never get confidence in what their doing, as they follow others or simply have no well thought out forex trading strategy and trade with their emotions.

2. Dennis also taught the traders to play great defence first. This meant strict money management to protect their equity above all else.

Just like any great football team you build from the back.

There is no point in having a great offensive line, if your backs can't protect you and it's the same in trading.

The Key Combination

Dennis essentially knew that you can teach anyone a trading system - but that's not enough, you need to combine this with mental discipline.

A lot is written about discipline in trading yet, few new traders really understand how hard it is to maintain it.

To keep executing a trading system when it's losing is tough!

Of course all systems will lose and you have to have the confidence, discipline and money management in place to ride the period out.

Could You Be Successful?

The story of the turtles actually inspired me to trade back in the eighties.

The reason it's so inspiring is because it shows anyone can make money with the right mindset and the right education.

Sure not everyone is going to become as rich as "the turtles" - but the opportunity exists and everyone can earn an income that more than compensates for the effort.

So the moral of the story is work smart, get a simple system, have confidence in it and apply it with discipline - if you can do that your on the road to currency trading success and a life changing income.

Forex Trading Education - The Key To Becoming A Winning Trader

Many traders only look at how to make money in Forex trading, and don't pay enough attention on how to avoid losing money. As you might guess by now, the real key to becoming a profitable trader is damage control.

Unfortunately, many people don't like to hear about this truth because it's not sexy or exciting. They think Forex trading is like gambling; fortunes can be made and lost in a single day. This is partially true, except that many more fortunes are lost rather than made.

And that's why this is one of the hardest concepts to practice in live trading. We are all so used to thinking that trading is an exciting activity, when true profitable trading actually involves a lot of hard work, analysis and risk management... hardly exciting at all!

How Winning Traders Trade

Winning traders always focus on both the winning and losing potential of every trade. To them, trading is a business. And as with any business, there are risks. No one can predict the future and the best thing anyone can do is to make an effort to measure the potential upside gains, given the downside risks. If the upside potential doesn't justify the downside risk, don't trade.

Good traders always ask themselves the question: "What's the worse that can happen in this trade?", or "Will I be able to take the potential loss?"

Winning traders actually focus more on the risks rather than the potential rewards. Damage control to them is more important than trying to make money.

And when you take care not to lose money, the profits will naturally come rolling in.

So How Should You Trade?

Just before you begin your trading day, you should always look towards one goal: To trade without suffering a loss. This should be your highest priority; your priority is not to make the most money. If you manage to not lose any money at the end of a trading day (even if you only break even), then you should congratulate yourself!